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Ben Bernanke, LeBron and Peyton Manning

Site Administrator | July 19, 2011

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Three Things You Can Count On:

There are few certainties in life outside of death, taxes and your dog liking you.  As far as a trader’s life goes, each day is filled with uncertainty as even the highest probability trades can turn on a dime.  That perfect trade is met with that unwelcome thing called "the unexpected" and all of a sudden a great gain turns into a major loss.  That being said, there are three things that are currently up in the air that we feel sure about.  Those that are sports fans in addition to market enthusiast currently have three major uncertainties (not necessarily in order of importance):

1.)    Whether or not the NFL will have a season

2.)    Whether or not the NBA will have a season

3.)    Whether or not the US Government will be able to pay its bills

If I had to handicap the three, I would say the NFL and NBA have the easiest time of making a deal because politics does not play near as important of a role as money does in #1 and #2 above.  When it comes down to it, the players and owners will sit down and figure out how much they will miss out on in the event the season does not occur, and that number is not just from salary and games.  Does LeBron think Nike is going to shell out big bucks to have him sport their brand in pick up games?  What exactly is an agent's commission if they make 3-5% of $0.  There are way too many interested parties to make sure the season occurs and the same thing goes for the NFL.  That being said, we at the TradingPub try to step back, look at the indicators and make a decision.  Our bet is that NFL and NBA players will come to an agreement with the owners.

Now, moving on to #3, which in our opinion has much higher stakes (sorry ESPN).  There are many people out there that doubt the government will get a deal done by the deadline.  We however feel that September 29, 2008 is still in the memories of the House, Senate and President Obama.  On September 29, 2008, during the midst of the financial crisis, the House voted 205-288 against the first TARP bill.  That caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close down over 700 points.  That was a time when everyone was worried about which bank would default and who would be next (especially without the bailout).  That being said, by October 3, the Senate passed a newly revised bill and the rest is history.

If the Dow fell over 700 points off news that the US Government was not going to bail out some banks, how much of a fall are we looking at if the US Government decides not bail out itself?  We are talking about an astronomical drop in the markets, and if that occurs you will see all Americans voting for Change again in 2012!  The good news is President Obama, Democrats and Republicans all know this as well.  At the end of the day there is a deal to be made and while we might not agree with the structure, you have to keep that horse running and in the game.  Default is not an option (p.s. in the event the US does default check back for our blog post titled "We Were Dead Wrong").

That being said, even with the surest of trades there is the possibility for error and it is important to comprehend the risks that are in the market right now which include:

-          Possible downgrade of US debt

-          Possible US Default

-          Possible downgrade of foreign debt

-          Possible default of foreign countries

There’s a saying that there is a time to hold em and fold em and that you should never count your chips at the table.  We feel now is the perfect time to count your chips whether you decide to hold em or fold em in the next few days, that you have strategies in mind that provide flexibility to not only take advantage of opportunities but to protect yourself as well.

Be sure to join us at our events where top traders share their strategies using stocks, futures, options and forex markets to take advantage of opportunities in the market as well as manage their risks.

You can see a list of our upcoming events here:  TradingPub Events

Cheers,

The TradingPub

“Trade, Talk, Learn – Cheers to Success”

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook

 

 Three Things You Can Count On:

There are few certainties in life outside of death, taxes and your dog liking you.  As far as a trader’s life goes, each day is filled with uncertainty as even the highest probability trades can turn on a dime.  That perfect trade is met with that unwelcome thing called "the unexpected" and all of a sudden a great gain turns into a major loss.  That being said, there are three things that are currently up in the air that we feel sure about.  Those that are sports fans in addition to market enthusiast currently have three major uncertainties (not necessarily in order of importance):

1.)    Whether or not the NFL will have a season

2.)    Whether or not the NBA will have a season

3.)    Whether or not the US Government will be able to pay its bills

If I had to handicap the three, I would say the NFL and NBA have the easiest time of making a deal because politics does not play near as important of a role as money does in #1 and #2 above.  When it comes down to it, the players and owners will sit down and figure out how much they will miss out on in the event the season does not occur, and that number is not just from salary and games.  Does LeBron think Nike is going to shell out big bucks to have him sport their brand in pick up games?  What exactly is an agent's commission if they make 3-5% of $0.  There are way too many interested parties to make sure the season occurs and the same thing goes for the NFL.  That being said, we at the TradingPub try to step back, look at the indicators and make a decision.  Our bet is that NFL and NBA players will come to an agreement with the owners.

Now, moving on to #3, which in our opinion has much higher stakes (sorry ESPN).  There are many people out there that doubt the government will get a deal done by the deadline.  We however feel that September 29, 2008 is still in the memories of the House, Senate and President Obama.  On September 29, 2008, during the midst of the financial crisis, the House voted 205-288 against the first TARP bill.  That caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close down over 700 points.  That was a time when everyone was worried about which bank would default and who would be next (especially without the bailout).  That being said, by October 3, the Senate passed a newly revised bill and the rest is history.

If the Dow fell over 700 points off news that the US Government was not going to bail out some banks, how much of a fall are we looking at if the US Government decides not bail out itself?  We are talking about an astronomical drop in the markets, and if that occurs you will see all Americans voting for Change again in 2012!  The good news is President Obama, Democrats and Republicans all know this as well.  At the end of the day there is a deal to be made and while we might not agree with the structure, you have to keep that horse running and in the game.  Default is not an option (p.s. in the event the US does default check back for our blog post titled "We Were Dead Wrong").

That being said, even with the surest of trades there is the possibility for error and it is important to comprehend the risks that are in the market right now which include:

-          Possible downgrade of US debt

-          Possible US Default

-          Possible downgrade of foreign debt

-          Possible default of foreign countries

There’s a saying that there is a time to hold em and fold em and that you should never count your chips at the table.  We feel now is the perfect time to count your chips whether you decide to hold em or fold em in the next few days, that you have strategies in mind that provide flexibility to not only take advantage of opportunities but to protect yourself as well.

Be sure to join us at our events where top traders share their strategies using stocks, futures, options and forex markets to take advantage of opportunities in the market as well as manage their risks.

You can see a list of our upcoming events here:  TradingPub Events

Cheers,

The TradingPub

“Trade, Talk, Learn – Cheers to Success”

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook