TLP’s Commentary from Last Night

Site Administrator | January 25, 2012

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We are having our first ever Trader Q & A Session this Thursday with Tony LaPorta and we thought it might be helpful to include his commentary and one of his charts from his update last night sent to subscribers to give you an idea of what he is looking at in today's market.  On the actual registration link, we leave a spot for a question that you can ask Tony.  We will do our best to get through as many as possible and group similar ones together as well.  Enjoy the commentary:

From TLP:

Ladies and Gents:

On Thursday, January 26, I am doing another Trading Pub webinar at 3:00 PM Central Time. It will be a Q&A session. Go to this link and register and ask a market related question. Due to the fact there were 325 people in the room for my first webinar, I am anticipating a big crowd. Questions will be grouped together so I can get to as many as possible.


I watched the likes of J&J, McDonalds and Verizon miss with their earnings or revenues this morning. Most companies which have reported already have missed earnings or revenues. There is obviously only one game in town. Apple earnings came out after the closing bell absolutely blowing away estimates. The indices are well bid after hours. I said it before and I will say it again. One stock does not make a market. It is a shame really that we don’t produce Apple products in America. Thank God we can’t export our farmland like we exported all out jobs. Mind you if Corporate America could have figured out a way they would have….

As much as I wanted to believe Apple was a sell, Apple along with NQH are trading to new highs after hours. NQH is trading at new 10-yr highs. I have a retracement level in NDX at 2471. This translates to NQH at 2267-2268. I talked about buy the rumor/sell the fact. The fact is here and we have a 10-yr retracement level at NQH 2267-2268. This is a good place to let them have a few tomorrow if we can trade that high. This evening’s after hours high is 2269. At today’s NQH close of 2437.5, the RSI was well overbought at 79.56. a 2460 trade tomorrow will put the RSI in the low 80’s…SOLD…SOLD…SOLD.

ESH and YMH have very interesting set-ups. Both markets pulled back today from Monday’s new highs for the move. Both markets are bid after hours but neither is bid as well as NQH. These are the sort of set-ups where the market will open higher in the morning but fail to hold those highs giving us System Trade Sell Signals. I will be keeping a keen eye on tomorrow’s action and report to you any findings if the market does sell off. Support and resistance levels have been provided. I want to sell into early morning strength.

As for the Fed statement tomorrow…if it is not broken don’t fix it. I not only see no change in their rhetoric; but in all honesty I still feel the Fed will continue purchasing bonds. For this economy to truly turn around, the housing market needs to be revitalized. Higher long-term rates will not help.

01/25 6:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index
9:00 AM Pending Home Sales
9:30 AM Crude Inventories
11:30 AM FOMC Announcement
12:00 PM 5-Yr Note Auction
1:15 PM Bernanke Press Conference
01/25…Boeing…Conoco Phillips…Motorola…United Technologies Corp…Netflix

ZBH and ZNH both have Minor Trend Change Indicators in place. After four consecutive days of lower lows, both markets put in Inside Range Days. The objectives from these formations are a trade above today’s highs of 14121 and 13006 respectively. Charts have been included and are self-explanatory. Support and resistance levels have been identified.
GEZ2…the sell signal says you should be short. I would not sell this market until it trades below 9941.5. Until then leave it alone. My gut says it goes higher tomorrow.

Lastly…the Yen closed 123 ticks lower today. This very well could have been the beginning of the move lower I have been looking for. I have my sights on that 12710 level and I am already working to sell another one lot at 12704 stop. I am still short 2 Yen…Woo-Hoo.


To join our next event, please click the following link:  Trader Q&A with Tony LaPorta


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Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Futures trading involves substantial financial risk. Views of guest commentators do not represent those of  Article intended for educational purposes only and not meant in anyway as a solicitation to buy or sell certain securities.  Please consult your personal financial advisor before using this information for your own trading purposes.