If you are busy working during the daytime, and can't watch the markets, here is a trading strategy that could yield consistent trading results after dinner.
Early yesterday evening, I was browsing through the Nadex trading platform, and I decided to take a look at some markets that I rarely trade. I pulled up the Japan 225 (Nikkei) index, and started to look at the historical performance of that index on multiple time frames to see if any patterns emerged.
When I switched to the hourly charts, something jumped out at me. It appeared that the 8 pm EDT hourly candlestick controlled the 9 pm EDT candlestick with a high degree of frequency.
Here's what I saw:
Notice the 8pm hourly candlesticks above. Can you see that the following 9 pm candlestick never challenges the opening price of the 8 pm candlestick? In fact, the 9 pm candlestick tends to continue in the same direction that was established by the 8 pm candlestick. I back-tested the hourly charts on Nadex, and the same pattern repeated itself for 10 consecutive trading days. Then I switched to the Nikkei feed on Investing.com and continued back-testing through mid-April. The pattern held about 85-90 percent of the time.
The same phenomenon occurs with the 7 am-9 am German "Strudel" strategy that I have written about extensively. Complete rules for the "Strudel" strategy are included in the free eBook from TradingPub, entitled "Trading Made Simple: Strategies that Risk $100 or Less".
The rules for this new strategy are very simple to execute:
- Select the 8 pm-10 pm EST Nadex time period for the Japan 225 (Nikkei) Index.
- If the 8pm EST hourly candlestick is BULLISH, then BUY at the first Nadex strike price available BELOW the opening price of hourly candlestick.
- If the 8pm EST hourly candlestick is BEARISH, then SELL at the first Nadex strike price available ABOVE the opening price of hourly candlestick.
This is a very simple strategy that looks like it can be remarkably consistent. Just be patient and watch the 8pm hourly candlestick develop. Once it's confirmed bullish, then buy. If it's confirmed bearish, then sell. If you want to be "super-safe", don't make a trading decision until 9pm, after the 8pm hourly candlestick has closed.
Since this is the first time I have traded on this observation, I elected to trade in demo, and here is how the traded played out:
8:00pm - The 8pm hourly candlestick opened at 20114.667, and drove downward for 30 minutes. Convinced that the market was going to continue on its bearish path, a pending/working order was placed to SELL from the first strike price available ABOVE the 8pm opening price. 2 trades were placed:
These were not a market orders. For both of them to fill, the market would have to grind back upward for a fill. Sure enough the market reversed and ground its way upward, filling both orders.
9:00pm - The 8pm hourly candlestick closed BEARISH at 20115.000. For both orders to expire successfully in the money, the Japan 225 market need to close at or below 20140 by the 10 pm expiration. The market ground back upward, threatening my SELL order at >20140. It ultimately came back down and settled at exactly 20140. A little too close for comfort, but a successful trade nonetheless.
Win: SELL at >20180 - 4 contracts x $20 profit, less $7.20 in exchange fees = $72.80
Win: SELL at >20140 - 1 contract x $43.50 profit, less $1.80 in exchange fees = $41.70
Total Profit after fees: $114.50
This is a new trading observation. I have back-tested as far back as I can get a feed from Investing.com. Over the past 2 months, the results look promising. I will continue to demo this a few more times to see if the strategy needs tweaking, and will continue to record and report results.
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